Modeling The Trade Flows of Leading Fishery Commodities in The Southern Region of Central Java Using The Gravity Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32497/keunis.v14i2.7160Keywords:
Central Java, fishery commodity, Gravity Model, market connectivity, trade flowAbstract
While having relatively high fishery production, the southern region of Central Java continues to produce poor and uneven interregional trade flows, reflecting persistent inefficiencies in market integration and spatial connectivity. This quantitative study examines the determinants of interregional trade flows of leading fishery commodities using an extended Gravity Model. Secondary data were obtained from Statistics Indonesia, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, and the Regional Development Planning Agency of Central Java, covering the period of 2018–2024. To explain trade volume between origin and destination regions, the model includes economic mass (Gross Regional Domestic Product), geographical distance, infrastructure quality, interregional price differentials, and market centrality. The findings demonstrate that statistically, the economic size of both the origin and destination regions has a positive and significant effect on trade flows. Distance and price differences, on the other hand, are statistically insignificant, suggesting that spatial separation and short-term price arbitrage are becoming less important. Infrastructure quality shows a positive but insignificant effect, indicating a supportive yet limited role. Meanwhile, market centrality exerts a profound and substantial impact on trade patterns. Theoretically, this study extends the Gravity Model by demonstrating that institutional market concentration outweighs traditional spatial frictions in regional fishery trade.
References
Ahmad, N. A. B. & Jaini, A. B., 2015. The Impact of Infrastructure on Trade in Malaysia. Journal of Entrepreneurship and Busines, 3(2), pp. 42 - 49.
Akbardin, J., Samsudin, A. & Khoiriyah, K., 2019. Application of gravity theory on the inter-regional zones activity build upon generating inland fisheries product result in Central Java. s.l., Journal of Physics: Conference Series.
Anderson , J. E. & Marcouiller, D., 2002. Insecurity and the Pattern of Trade: An Empirical Investigation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2), pp. 342-352 .
Anderson, J. E., 2011. The Gravity Model. Annual Review Economic, Volume 3, pp. 133-160.
Anderson, J. E. & Wincoop, E. v., 2003. Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1), p. 170–192.
Arvis, J.-F., Duval, Y., Shepherd, B. & Utoktham, C., 2013. Trade costs in the developing world: 1995–2010, s.l.: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6309.
Ayuwangi, A. & Widyastutik, 2013. Pengaruh Variabel Ekonomi Dan Non Ekonomi Terhadap Impor Indonesia Dari Asean+6 Melalui Moda Transportasi Laut. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 7(2), pp. 231-247.
Baier, S. L. & Bergstrand, J. H., 2007. Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members’ International Trade ?. Journal of International Economics, Volume 17, pp. 72-95.
Baita, K., 2020. Impact of Infrastructure on Trade: An Empirical Assessment by the Gravity Model in ECOWAS, s.l.: SSRN.
Behar, A. & Venables, A. J., 2011. Transport Costs And International Trade. In: In A Handbook of Transport Economics. United Kingdom: Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 97-115.
Bougheas, S., Demetriades, P. O. & Morgenroth, E. L., 1999. Infrastructure, Transport Costs And Trade. Journal of International Economics, 47(1), pp. 169-189.
BPS Jawa Tengah, 2025. Volume Produksi dan Nilai Produksi Perikanan Tangkap Menurut Kabupaten/Kota dan Jenis di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, 2024, Semarang: Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Tengah.
Brakman, S., Garretsen, H. & Marrewijk, C. v., 2009. Economic Geography within and between European Nations: The Role of Market Potential and Density across Space and Time. Journal of Regional Science, 49(4), pp. 777-800.
Brun, J. F., Carrère, C., Guillaumont, P. & de Melo, J., 2005. Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model. The World Bank Economic Review, 19(1), p. 99–120.
Celbis, M. G., Nijkamp, P. & Poot, J., 2014. Infrastructure and Trade: A Meta-Analysis*. REGION, 1(1), pp. 25-65.
Clark, X., Dollar, D. & Micco, A., 2004. Port Efficiency, Maritime Transport Costs, And Bilateral Trade. Journal of Development Economics, 72(2), pp. 417-450.
Dalisaintri, Noor, M. & Irawan, B., 2025. Strategi Pemerintah Dalam Meningkatakan Pendapatan Asli Daerah. Klaten: PT. Nas Media Indonesia.
Direktorat Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Ikan, 2024. Laporan Kinerja Direktorat Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Ikan pada Triwulan II Tahun 2024, Jakarta: Direktorat Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Ikan.
Donaubauer, J., Glas, A., Meyer , B. & Nunnenkamp , P., 2018. Disentangling The Impact Of Infrastructure On Trade Using A New Index Of Infrastructure. Review of World Economics, Volume 154, p. 745–784.
Erokhin, V., Tianming, G. & Ivolga, A., 2021. Cross-Country Potentials and Advantages in Trade in Fish and Seafood Products in the RCEP Member States. Sustainability, 13(7), p. 3668.
Francois, J. & Manchin, M., 2013. Institutions, Infrastructure, and Trade. World Development, Volume 46, pp. 165-175.
Ghaffar, A. M., Wanti, W. & Erna, 2023. Supply Chain Model of Fish Caught Landed at The Pelabuhan Perikanan Samudera (PPS) Cilacap, Central Java. Indonesian Journal of Contemporary Multidisciplinary Research, 2(3), pp. 507-514.
Gkatsikos, A., 2025. Port Power and Trade Flows: Evaluating China’s Infrastructure Leverage in EU Markets Through a Gravity Model. Economies, 13(210), pp. 1-29.
Ichsan, A. K. N., Rahmawati, Y. & Anggraeni, F. N., 2022. Spatial Spillover Effect of East Java Economic Growth. East Java Economic Journal, 6(1), pp. 1-25.
Isard, W. et al., 1998. Methods of Interregional and Regional Analysis. Brookfield Vermont: Ashgate.
Ismail, N. W. & Mahyideen, J. M., 2015. The Impact of Infrastructure on Trade and Economic Growth in Selected Economies in Asia, Tokyo: ADBI Working Paper Series Paper 553.
Krugman, P. R. & Obstfeld, M., 2023. International Economics: Theory and Policy. 6th ed. Boston: Pearson.
Limão, N. & Venables, A., 2001. Infrastructure, Geographical Disadvantage, Transport Costs, and Trade. The World Bank Economic Review, 15(3), pp. 451-479.
Mauleny, A. T. et al., 2020. Memajukan Logistik Indonesia yang Berdaya Saing. Jakarta: Yayasan Pustaka Obor Indonesia.
Naya, D. A. B., Wijayanto, D. & Sardiyatmo, 2017. Analisis Komoditas Unggulan Perikanan Tangkap Di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Journal of Fisheries Resources Utilization Management and Technology, 6(3), pp. 37-47.
Nurhayati, A., Suryana, A. A. H., Titin, H. & Yustiati, A., 2023. The resilience of fishery production supply chain in West Java Province, Indonesia. Honolulu, HI, IOP Publishing.
Rozaki, Z. et al., 2024. Optimizing Coastal Management: A Comprehensive Value Chain Analysis Approach for Sustainable Economic Development in Java, Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Perikanan dan Kelautan, 16(1), pp. 165-179.
Seck, A., 2017. Trade Infrastructure, Trade Participation, and Trade Propensity of sub-Saharan African Firms. Journal of African Development, 19(1), pp. 1-26.
Sitompul, T. K., Sahara, S. & Anggraeni, L., 2018. The Effects of Trade Facilitation on Indonesian Fisheries Export. Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis, 15(3), pp. 230-238.
Tarigan, R., 2004. Ekonomi regional : teori dan aplikasi / Robinson Tarigan. 1st ed. Jakarta: Bumi Aksara.
Ujianti, R. M. D., Burhanuddin, A. & Novita, M., 2024. Blue Economic Analysis in Coastal Areas of the IndonesianJava Sea Based on Fisheries. Advances in Agriculture, 2024(1), pp. 1-12.
Wahab, B. A., 2024. Trade-related infrastructure and bilateral trade flows: evidence from Nigeria and its trading partners. Journal of Economic Structures, 13(13), pp. 1-31.
Wahab, B. A., 2024. Trade-related infrastructure and bilateral trade flows: evidence from Nigeria and its trading partners. Journal of Economic Structures, 13(13), pp. 1-31.
Wahiu, R. Y., Andaki, J. A. & Wasak, M. P., 2019. Analisis Rantai Pasok Produk Perikanan Tangkap Bagan Apung. Akulturasi, 7(2), pp. 1299-1310.
Wicaksana, I., Wijaya, I. P. E., Suhaeni , S. & Syahputra , A., 2023. Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Ekspor Komoditas Perikanan: Pendekatan Gravity Model. Jurnal Agrimanex Agribusiness Rural Management and Development Extension, 3(1), pp. 1-13.
Yuniarti, D., 2007. Analisis Determinasi Perdagangan Bilateral Indonesia Pendekatan Gravity Model. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Ekonomi Negara Berkembang, 12(2), pp. 99-109.
Zuhud, A. S. et al., 2023. Optimizing Coastal Management: A Comprehensive Value Chain Analysis Approach for Sustainable Economic Development in Java, Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Perikanan dan Kelautan, 16(1), pp. 165-179.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 The Author(s)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
KEUNIS is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
